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An Approach of Traffic Flow Prediction Using ARIMA Model with Fuzzy Wavelet Transform

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  • Tue, 07/03/2018 - 10:00am - 12:00pm




An Approach of Traffic Flow Prediction Using ARIMA Model with Fuzzy Wavelet Transform

MSc Thesis Proposal by:

Sukruti Vaghasia

Date:  Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018
Time:  10: 00 am – 12:00 pm
Location: 3105, Lambton Tower

Abstract: It is essential for intelligent transportation systems to be capable of producing accurate forecast of traffic flow in both short and long terms. However, the counting datasets of traffic volume are non-stationary time series, which are integrally noisy. As a result, the accuracy of traffic prediction carried out on such unrefined data is reduced by the arbitrary components. Prior study shows that Box-Jenkins’ Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models convey demands noise free dataset for model construction. Therefore, this study proposes to overcome the noise issue by using a hybrid approach that combines the ARIMA model with fuzzy wavelet transform. In this approach, fuzzy rules are developed to categorize traffic datasets according to influencing factors, such as time of a day, season of a year, and weather conditions. As the input of linear data series for ARIMA model needs to be converted into linear time series for traffic flow prediction, discrete wavelet transform is applied to help separating the non-linear and liner part of the time series along with de-noising time series traffic data. In addition to details of the proposed approach, plans for experiments on real traffic data will also be discussed at the end of the presentation.

Thesis Committee:
Internal Reader: Dr. Jianguo Lu
External Reader: Dr. Gokul Bhandari
Advisor: Dr. Xiaobu Yuan

 



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